We analysed every crash round on Solacrash
195,307 rounds, from 5 September 2026 to 10 October 2026. Here is how often the plane really reached 2×, 10× and 100×, and how that compares with the published formula.
Where rounds end
Each bar is the share of real rounds that crashed in that range. The white tick is what the formula predicts. They sit almost exactly on top of each other.
| Crashed between | Rounds | Observed | Formula |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00× (instant) | 5,737 | 2.937% | 2.970% |
| 1.01–1.5× | 61,948 | 31.718% | 31.696% |
| 1.5–2× | 31,774 | 16.269% | 16.333% |
| 2–3× | 31,944 | 16.356% | 16.333% |
| 3–5× | 25,381 | 12.995% | 13.067% |
| 5–10× | 19,431 | 9.949% | 9.800% |
| 10–20× | 9,670 | 4.951% | 4.900% |
| 20–50× | 5,653 | 2.894% | 2.940% |
| 50–100× | 1,862 | 0.953% | 0.980% |
| 100–1000× | 1,718 | 0.880% | 0.882% |
| 1000× (cap) | 189 | 0.097% | 0.098% |
How often each target was reached
The chance of reaching any cash-out target m is published as 0.98 ÷ m. Across 195,307 rounds, here is what actually happened:
| Reached at least | Observed | Formula | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01× | 97.063% | 97.030% | +0.033 pts |
| 1.5× | 65.344% | 65.333% | +0.011 pts |
| 2× | 49.076% | 49.000% | +0.076 pts |
| 5× | 19.724% | 19.600% | +0.124 pts |
| 10× | 9.775% | 9.800% | −0.025 pts |
| 100× | 0.976% | 0.980% | −0.004 pts |
| 1000× | 0.097% | 0.098% | −0.001 pts |
What the numbers say
The game behaves exactly as published. Every range lands within a fraction of a percentage point of the formula, which is what you expect from 195,307 independent rounds. Small differences like these are ordinary randomness, and they shrink as more rounds are played.
Half the rounds end below 1.96×. A quarter end below 1.30×, and only one in ten gets past 9.77×. The average crash point, 7.69×, is much higher than the median because a few rounds fly very far: the highest reached the 1000× cap.
Losing streaks are real. The longest run of rounds in a row that all ended below 2× was 16. At a 49% chance per round, streaks of that length are expected over this many rounds. It is the reason betting systems that double after every loss eventually break; try it in the Martingale simulator.
The house edge doesn't care about your target. Multiply the chance of reaching a target by its payout and you get 0.98 every time. The crash odds calculator shows it for any target, and every round here can be verified on the fairness page.
Method: every round with status "crashed" in the Solacrash database, counted directly. The report is rebuilt daily; last generated 10 October 2026. You're welcome to cite these figures with a link to this page.